Beskyttet: Interview med Olivier Danvel – Positivt afkast i 38 måneder

Jeg har valgt at dele hele interviewet på engelsk, da der gik for meget tabt i min oversættelse. I stedet har jeg valgt at skrive noter ind løbende på dansk, hvis der er noget, som jeg mener skal forklares mere simpelt, eller hvis det skal give bedre mening for en dansker, som benytter CopyTrading. Du er også velkommen til at sende kommentarer til mig, for så skal jeg nok rette det til efterhånden. Mit formål er at flest muligt får noget ud af det. Men generelt set vælger de fleste CopyTrading for ikke at bruge for meget energi på økonomiske begreber. På den måde har man mulighed for at kopiere succesfulde investorer og benytte sig af deres arbejde. Q: In this question, I'm not thinking of you but your views about currency trading in general. If I want to copy a currency trader, what should I look for to see if they know what they are doing? Olivier Danvel In short, look for regularity in the performance over the months a nice looking equity curve, the real max drawdown. In general, it doesn’t matter what financial assets are traded. It’s ok to have one trade a month as well as 20 trades a day. Watch in that case the % of the swap from the global performance if any. Regularity, I mean that if the performance is 10% for 1 month and for the year it’s also 10%, there is something wrong here. It is important to make the difference between a monthly performance including the actual p&l and a monthly performance based only on closed trades. Be aware of this because in general, the presentation of the performance from a trading activity is based only on closed trades. Also using big leverage in forex is ok if consistency is part of the trading, but the more leverage, the more risk so, not much serious traders do that. They are a few ways to consider before answering this question. It is mostly according to the strategy, money management, risk control and the psychology of the fx trader. Let’s have quick examples. Trader 1, Scalping Strategy. Have to set a stop loss and a target profit mostly automatically. If the Risk/Reward ratio is 1 to 10, so he could have 90% of losing trades but still be profitable. Trader 2, Daytrading. Overall Yearly Drawdown of 5%. Excellent ! But in the history of the fx trader, he had bigger drawdowns. So consider to be able to know every important information like all the deposits and withdrawals of the account. Trader 3, Long term Strategy. It is possible to have good results by being lucky like the US stock market for the last 10 years for buy only traders. I consider a true trader to be able to short the markets. Mine noter: Han siger, at du ikke skal gå op i, hvad en investor handler med, men i stedet kigge på, om du synes, de er gode investorer. Her nævner han helt konkret, at du bør kigge på afkast over måneder og hvis det i nogle af disse måneder har samme niveau som hele afkastet i slutningen af året, så skal du være bekymret. Det er også lidt det, som han hentyder til i Trader 3 eksemplet. Vi så dette inden finanskrisen og også nu under Coronavirus krisen, at hvis man bare køber aktier, så vil de være steget næsten uanset hvad. Men i kriserne så man, hvem der havde en større plan med det hele. Oliver Danvel har f.eks. også lavet et positivt afkast i den måned, hvor markederne faldt med 10% på en uge. Q: Why do you think it's a good idea to copy a currency trader? Olivier Danvel There is not much difference from a currency trader or other traders as long as they provide good results. I do think that this service offered by eToro is a wonderful way to benefit from professional people work. You can constitute a diversified portfolio by selecting a few top traders. This free service gives access to beat the benchmark of all the banks and financial institutions in the world on average. eToro is unique as a leader broker to bring up to date services and products that everyone is looking for his own financial investment plan. Mine noter: Igen påpeger han, at du ikke ska fokusere på, hvad en investor handler med, men hvordan de klarer sig. Han roser eToro, fordi man nu har en unik mulighed for at investere i andres gode råd. Herudover siger han, at du skal vælge et par gode investorer. Dette giver god mening, så man spreder sin risiko. Q: I think currency trading is interesting if we move into an economic crisis because a lot of our readers invest in index funds which get hit hard in a crisis. For me, it seems that currency trading can be good for my portfolio. Do you think you can keep the same returns in a crisis or do you see any problems and concerns here? Olivier Danvel I do not see a correlation between an economic crisis and what asset to invest in. The issue is not in what to invest but to find a competent, smart, secure, reliable, strong and patient trader. Now, a long only strategy financial asset will be hurt hard on crisis, I do not recommend this kind of one way trading. The big issue, according to me, in selecting financial assets to invest, or simply who to invest with like a trader or a company is the real time information you can get. Most of institutions deliver partial and rare information on the real time investments and statistics that are made from the available funds. Today, investors need to know what is going on with their money if not in real time, on a daily basis. Mine noter: Igen påpeger han problemerne i, hvis man kun køber aktier og holder dem i lang tid. Han ser dette som en envejs-investor, som kommer til at tabe mange penge i en krise. Han siger, du skal vælge at investere steder, hvor du får dagligt information. Det sidste er årsagen til, at Olivier Danvel selv deler så meget om sin strategi på eToro. Q: In this question let's say I already decided that CopyTrading can help me in a crisis and I want to copy you. If a trader thinks a crisis is coming and he/she currently has stocks how would you say he should invest in copying you in currency trading? I'm thinking mostly in terms of % where we say the trader currently has 100% in stocks and the trader needs to sell these stocks today to copy you? Olivier Danvel If he thinks that a crisis is coming so he should sell 100% in the first place. Then if he does not trust stock/index trading for a period of time, he can build a portfolio on different fx and commodity traders. Not much commodity’s only traders on eToro so I would diversify among some best fx traders. Should this trader copy trade only me, of course I wish that he should choose only me but he needs to consider his personal profile first like his desire to take risks or not according to his financial investment plan. Mine noter: Jeg stillede vel og mærke disse spørgsmål før krisen. Han siger, at man ikke skal beholde aktier, hvis man tror, der kommer en krise. Dette går fint i tråd med, at både Mark Cuban og Warren Buffett inden krisen var begyndt at have flere penge i cash. Dette gør de, hvis de synes, priserne er blevet for høje, for så vil der komme en rettelse på markedet. Han anbefaler, at man i stedet kan investere i en valutahandler eller råvarer investor. Men da der ikke er mange råvarer investorer, ville han vælge et par gode valutahandlere. Q: I know you had some bad months but you actually recouped but I saw some people panicking a little bit. How do you think one should react if you ever get a month with negative returns? Olivier Danvel I do not call them bad months, but challenging ones because they ended always in the green side. Drawdown is a must in trading, no drawdown, no profit. Yes people do panic, it’s in the nature of human beings. Not everybody is secure enough to trust 100% someone. So people express their feelings the way they choose and at the level they decide. This does not have an impact on my emotions because in 20 years, I have learned to manage them. I do trust my strategy 100% it is vital for any trader to success. I do think that one month could happen to be a negative month, that will make me more human because a lot of people still think that I am a robot with the next generation AI program. Nothing will happen, a new month will start with the same strategy, the profits will be for the next month including the last month results in consideration to have a better new month results. Mine noter: Især dette svar er utrolig vigtigt, hvis du vil have succes med investering og CopyTrading. Her kommer han ind på, at man skal investere i nogen, som man tror på og man skal ikke have urealistiske forventninger. Som han siger, så kan han sagtens få en dårlig måned, selvom han ikke har haft en måned endnu med negativt afkast. Han har sin strategi og den stoler han 100% på. Q: What is the reason you started investing in cryptocurrency? Is it something you will pursue more in the future? Olivier Danvel The reason is because it is the future of our financial world as we know it. As the crypto world gets more and more adoption it gets more volume in trading so more stability. It is like any other financial asset. I do trade crypto in a hedging way to secure my commodity trading but I could find new ways to trade crypto as long as it is suitable to the parameters of my strategy. Mine noter: Jeg stillede ham dette spørgsmål, fordi han på dette tidspunkt var begyndt at handle en smule med kryptovaluta. Sidenhen ser det ud til, at han har mindsket det dog. Men det er et område, som han investerer i, fordi det er en del af fremtidens investeringsverden. Han vil blive ved med det, hvis det passer ind i hans strategi. Q:Where do you see your investing heading in the future? Olivier Danvel You don't change a winning team. As long as I can adapt my strategy to the unstoppable new market conditions, I will trade that way. I do my best to provide low risk returns as I think it should be. Mine noter: Ikke overraskende så har han tænkt sig at fortsætte med sin strategi. Jeg ville nok også være mere bange, hvis han pludselig ændrede fuldstændig strategi, så det var jeg glad for at høre. Olivier Danvel er helt klart en af de investorer, som alle burde gøre til en del af sin CopyTrading portefølje.